Friday, November 24, 2006

Fall in global oil supply not expected before 2030

The world's oil supply won't begin to run out for at least another 24 years, contrary to some theories that suggest production has already peaked and supply is now in a terminal decline, a prominent U.S. energy consulting group says.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates remaining global supply at 3.74 trillion barrels, compared with 1.2 trillion estimated by "peak oil" theorists. Peter Jackson, CERA's director of oil industry activity, doesn't dispute that oil will run out, but says the peak won't occur before 2030. He said the peak won't be followed by a sharp decline but by an "undulating plateau," in which production rises and falls for decades before entering permanent decline.